Nutter's Washington

Vote on Government Funding: What does it mean?

The House of Representatives will vote Thursday on a Joint Resolution to fund the operations of the Federal government through Dec. 11. Spending levels will continue for about 10 weeks of so from end of the Fiscal Year on September 30 at about current levels.

The Continuing Resolution caps annual spending at the 2014 $1.012 trillion level.

Congress needs to take this action to avoid another “government shutdown” because it has not passed any of the dozen appropriations measures intended to fund the government for a full fiscal year.

The House has passed seven appropriations bills but the Senate under the screwball leadership of Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) has not yet passed a single one, in fact the Senate has not even taken one vote on any appropriation measure. Pure dereliction.

What does this mean if this date is adopted?

It means this Congress has totally capitulated. Members want to adjourn and will adjourn, likely to return in late November. However, the December 11th date of continuing funding also means Congress will stay around for only a few weeks and it is highly unlikely any major issue will be addressed, that will falls to the next Congress. Of course there will have to be another CR but there will be no drama.

The Resolution in the House kicks any decision on the re- authorization of the Export-Import Bank until June 30, 2015, eliminating this contentious issue for the time being. There are a few issues such as extension of expired tax provisions that need to be dealt with one way of the other and perhaps addition money for action against ISIL. 

However, for the most part, it is see you next year. 

 

 

 

Congress is Back and the Three-year plan for ISIS

Congress is back in Washington today. It will be a short stay. The campaign trial awaits and the possibility of passing legislation that deserves attention is remote, make that very remote. The only real pending and needed business is to fund the government’s operations past September 30. It is likely to happen. There is plenty to fight over but nothing to win in the end.

The next two weeks will be filled with the respective Houses considering and maybe even voting on proposals purely political in nature and aimed at putting the opposing party in an uncomfortable position. The tactic usually does not work but it particularly does not work in the Senate as Majority Leader Harry Reid has repealed the concept of democracy by never allowing a free flow of debate and votes. As I recall from the third grade, that is what the Senate was designed to do, debate issues and everyone get a chance to bring up ideas, even if they do not have much support.

As I have said many times, it is all about November 4^th.

The other thing going on here is the trials and tribulation of beleaguered President Obama. It seems he has found a strategy (after not having one at all and then having a concept of “managing” the threat) to deal the brutal thugs beheading people in the Middle East.  According to leaked information and public statements, the implementation of the strategy to rid the world of this scourge will take as much as three (3) years. When I read that in the newspaper today, I thought it has to be a misprint. When I thought about it for a moment, realizing it comes from a Government that could not exit Iraq fast enough (the consequences of which are being reaped now) ignores its own declaration of red lines and bans Russians from DisneyWorld as a sanction, made me sad.

It made me sad for all those people who will be publically executed, displaced and ruined. It made me sad Mr. Obama is so feckless and reckless. It made me sad our country has become impotent and seems to lead from so far behind; we cannot longer see the behind of the dog in front of us. 

I never thought the invasion of Iraq was such a great notion. That is another subject and I do not profess to have the solutions to eliminate ISIL. However, I do think a plan that will take three years to make any progress is absurd, not serious and really a meaningless effort designate to fail. Mr. Obama’s policy in the Middle East and elsewhere has failed; he cannot see the cause and result. He will go to any length to delay, change subjects and not confront the situation. Only pressure and embarrassment have forced him to get a strategy now and a three-year one is all he could come up with.     

Congress: After the Election--- What next?

With the election coming on strong, it is worhtwhile to look forward. What will be done after the election and in the next Congress no matter if the control of the Senate goes to the Republicans? 

Under the category of “elections have consequences”, the agenda for a lame duck session look different based on which party controls a majority of seats.  This also holds true for the next Congress.

What Will Congress Take Up In September?

There are only a few “must do” issues left in the remainder of the session. The primary one is funding the operations of the government. Currently, funding lasts only to October 1 and it is likely Congress will pass some sort of Continuing Resolution but for how long remains unknown. The CR could push off all decisions until after the elections in a “lame duck session” or push them into next year.

Treatment of expiring tax provisions -- some 50 of them- is another issue needing Congress’ attention, likely in post election session. The House and the Senate have taken very different approaches on the “extenders”. 

There are a few other issues, such as Export-Import Bank reauthorization but not enough to keep Congress around after it returns. Of course, foreign and military issues could always pop up on an emergency situation.

Post Election Session

Democrats control Senate- The recalcitrance of Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) in allowing Democrats and ergo the entire Senate to vote on issues viewed as politically risky for Senate Democrats prior to the election will be diminished if Democrats keep control the Senate. Senator Reid may attempt to push through various programs that earlier failed, this may include stalled nominations and there may be some pet areas that can be negotiated with Republicans

Republicans capture Senate- In the event Republicans capture a Senate majority, there would be no incentive for Republicans to cooperate with Democrats except on minor matters and possible consensus bills.  Constructive business would likely be centering – at a minimum -- on any must do legislation and addressing a few nuisance items. Republicans can be expected to be very aggressive and this could lead to any early adjournment.

The Next Congress

Democrat Senate-Republican House- If Democrats continue to control the Senate; the 115^th Congress is likely to be much like the current 114^th. Politics will quickly become more complicated as Republicans will have to defend more than twice the seats as Democrats in 2016 -- Presidential election politics will skewer policy positions and debates. Perhaps, early in the year, there could be some movement on some issues. I have my doubts.

As an unpopular lame duck in his final two years, Mr. Obama is likely to gradually wane from view and influence in spite of his narcissistic nature, as the focus will turn to the national agenda of the respective parties and the candidates

Republicans control both Houses- This is by far the most interesting scenario but it is unpredictable what direction it will follow. Certainly, Republicans have repressed and pent up ambitions on pushing their agenda forward. As note above, there will be attacks on the programs of the last 6 years, including many of Obama’s “executive actions.” Some commentators believe this scenario provides an opening for compromise if the parties engage each other.

Compromise may be true on some issues but look for the Republicans to try to pull back the size and scope government and spending programs.  Mr. Obama will use his veto on major changes but Republicans could win some battles.

President Obama will have a bit more than two years left in office after the election. Failing some dramatic change or outside events altering the political landscape, those two years will be dominated by much of what we see now. The Obama team will continue to try to reshape government through extraordinary executive actions and regulations and selective enforcement of laws.

 

Congressional Elections: Coming on Strong and Soon

 

The mid-term election is getting closer.  It is clearly dominating the political scene in Washington. Congress will be back in session in a few days but do not expect them to stick around long. The campaign trail is calling!!

With Congress returning only for two to three weeks in September, let us look at the state of play in congressional elections – as the traditional and serious kick-off of the fall elections is on Labor Day weekend.

A total of 471 Congressional seats made up of 36 seats in the Senate, (including three special elections), and all 435 seats in the House will go before the voters on November 4.

The GOP currently controls the House of Representatives with a 17-seat margin -- while Democrats outnumber Republicans, 53-45, in the U.S. Senate (with two Independents joining the Democrat caucus).

For Republicans to take the majority in the Senate, they need to take six seats currently held by Democrats and retain control of all seats currently held by a Republican. For Democrats to assume in the House majority control, a pick up of 17 seats is needed. With Congressional districts drawn as they are now, there really is no reasonable expectation the House will turn Democrat.

Six incumbent senators and 42 representatives are not seeking reelection. Additionally, three senators and six representatives left office early.

Of the 33 Class II Senate seats up for normal reelection, Democrats currently hold 20 and 13 by Republicans. Additionally, three special elections will take place in 2014 to fill vacancies that occurred during the Congress in Hawaii, Oklahoma and South Carolina. No change of party affiliation is expected in these special elections.

For Democrat incumbents, many of their seats up in 2014 are in “red” states carried by Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election, including Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. There is a strong consensus among election watchers; Republicans have a solid hold on picking up Democrat seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.

The 2014 Senate elections are not shaping up to be particularly favorable for the Democrats. While there are still scenarios where they could walk away, breaking even, or even gain a seat or two, those scenarios are somewhat limited. At this point, however, incumbent Democrats in North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas are doing better than many pundits anticipated. Still, these seats are in the “toss up” or “leans Republican” categories. Current predictions vary, but seem to center around Republicans picking up between five and seven seats, with the overall range of possibilities a bit wider.

There are 45 Democrat seats deemed safe or not up for reelection as against 46 for Republicans. Included in the Republican total are likely or expected switches from Democrat to Republican in West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana.

Currently, there appears to be a consensus that there 9 tossups-7 Democrats and 2 Republican. Not much margin for error. The tossups are:

• Alaska: Begich (D)
• Arkansas: Pryor (D)
• Colorado Udall (D)
• Iowa: Open (D)
• Louisiana: Landrieu (D)
• Michigan: Open (D)
• North Carolina:  Hagen (D)
• Kentucky: McConnell (R)
• Georgia: Open (R)

If the Republicans hold their 2-tossup seats, then they need to win only 3 of the remaining seven-tossup states held by Democrats, assuming no surprises anywhere else. This is a definite possibility, although each state and candidates have to be examined on an individual basis.

The explanations for this state of affairs centers around three different factors: the President is widely unpopular, the president’s party always loses seats in midterm elections, and the Democrats won a number of seats in 2008, setting them up to defend a large number in 2014. It is, no doubt, more complicated. Many issues -- foreign and domestic -- national and local-economic and social have not been addressed much less resolved by elected officials. There is divisiveness and rancor between both parties in Congress and the Administration does not seem to like either party.

No matter what the results, President Obama will have a bit more than two years left in office after the election. Failing some dramatic change or outside events altering the political landscape, those two years will be dominated by much of what we see now. The Obama team will continue to try to reshape government through extraordinary executive actions and regulations and selective enforcement of laws.

I will make my predictions in October.