Shutdown Over: Move on to Next Crisis

The 16-day rancorous partial shut down of the government ended when Congress passed legislation to fund the federal government (until January 15, 2014), and extend the debt ceiling to approximately February 7, 2014. The debt ceiling could be extended for s short time beyond February 7  by “extraordinary measures” by the Treasury Department allowed under the legislation.

The legislation passed in the Senate, by a margin of 81 to 18. All Senate Democrats voted for the legislation and 18 Republicans voted against it. The legislation passed the Republican controlled House with all 198 Democrats and 87 Republicans voting for it. Voting against were 144 Republicans ,a big contra majority.  

Conservative Republicans trying to find a way to derail the implementation of the Affordable Care Act initiated the budget impasse. The final agreement makes no changes to the health law, although it remains a contentious issue

As part of the agreement, a budget conference was established to reconcile the House and Senate budget resolutions passed earlier this year.  The budget conference committee includes 29 lawmakers – 22 from the Senate and 7 from the House of Representatives. Of the Senate members, 12 are Democrats and 10 are Republicans. Of the House members, 4 are Republicans and 3 Democrats. Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) chair the conference committee,

The respective budget resolutions take a vastly different approach. The House budget generates savings entirely on the spending side by revamping federal entitlement programs and further reductions of $250 billion in discretionary programs beyond the sequester. The House budget also calls for a revenue-neutral tax reform that reduces tax preferences in order to reduce tax rates. The Senate budget generates savings from both spending cuts and revenue increases. The Senate budget calls for $975 billion in new taxes, a few reductions in health programs and only $380 billion from discretionary spending reductions in place of the $940 billion sequester. The gap between the two approaches is about $100 billion in the first year and wider after that. 

The tax issue is the great divide. Democrats want them big time. Republicans taking the Obama strategy will not even negotiate. End of Conference. In order to reduce federal spending the conservatives, backed up by the sequester, do not have to do anything. 

Congress will continue to be consumed by the budget and the entire attendant issues. Although the different sides re-opened the government, the fact is the parties only delayed any longer term resolution. It is unpredictable how the next round will be resolved but it is likely Republicans- politically stung by the shutdown-will not push the same issues again. However, it is equally likely any arrangement will not be some grand bargain, which included large lax increases

In addition to the budget, the Affordable Health Care Act will, after a rocky roll out of the health exchanges and the cancelation of many health care policies, will receive considerable political attention but doubtful Congress will make any substantive changes.

So, where does this leave the country? You know the people who actually live here.  Well, no worse or better off than we were collectively for the most part before all of this mess. The political conflict goes on and the divide-particularly the almost total distrust by conservatives in the Obama Administration- is deeper than ever. From the rhetoric from the White House (when not repeating the toll free number) the feeling is no doubt mutual.

The press is full of chatter about the fighting in the Republican Party and the low poll ratings of them in general. It is deserved but I suspect it is not lasting. Voting decisions are not made now and time will dissipate the ghosts of the October shutdown. The public memory is short and one story replaces another. Remember wiretapping the press, IRS scandal, Benghazi?

Congress can continue to debate and probably not resolve its fiscal woes (which are our also) Mr. Obama can look back at a year squandered. For the rest of us, we can continue to deal with our lives and hope the powers in charge do not screw it up more than it already is.