Ready to Vote? Observations and Predictions

The political campaign is over. The candidates will be jetting around to important states trying to gin up the believers. Supporters will be trying to get people to the polls to vote tomorrow. The respective campaigns are confident of victory, (as they have to be) but I suspect one camp already knows the outcome.

Opinion polls are varied, divergent and inconsistent. The electoral map-looking at the polls-suggests Mr. Obama will be re-elected. I cannot dispute that notion. However, I am not sure it is right. Here is why.

A friend of mine yesterday asked a really good question. He said, he did not understand why anyone would vote for Mr. Obama. This friend is not politically schooled in the ways of Washington. He was merely asking why the country would continue with a person who has failed in so many areas and who seems nasty and blames any and everyone else for the condition of the country. As I said, it is a good question. It is this kind of question that leads me to think there is a real Obama fatigue and frustration that might manifest itself tomorrow. If it does not, then Mr. Romney will lose.

There is a certain other type of voter out there that acts as a counter balance. It is this voter that Mr. Obama counts on for victory. It is the one that overlooks and forgives Mr. Obama for his shortcoming. It is the one who believes Mr. Romney is truly a bad, dishonest, uncaring person as portrayed in those so many commercials and speeches given by the President. It is this type of voter that is the reasons Mr. Obama may retain office.

Whenever I try to discuss politics with this type of friend of mine, the conversation inevitable leaves the subject of the policies of the President and ends up berating and blaming President Bush. I must say this person is not objective about anything Mr. Obama has done. I find this very strange and for the most part refuse to engage in this line of diversion, it is not worth the effort. It is not about Bush anymore. It is about judging what direction, solutions the country will pursue in the future.

Of course, Mr. Obama also has a very reliable, almost robotic legion of voters he can count on—teachers, public service employees, Blacks, union members, Hispanics, environmentalists, academicians, liberals and feminists among them. That is quite a crew. Mr. Romney has no equivalent to match. Some of Mr. Romney’s’ support such as social conservatives is because he is not Mr. Obama. It will be very important to the President to come close mobilizing his troops, although I do not think the enthusiasm is as strong this time.  

I believe the election is a referendum on the President, in spite of his effort to tar Mr. Romney. The country will make a choice and I think the choices are clear. However, the next person has Herculean tasks ahead of him.

No matter who is elected, I am not optimistic about solving the issues facing all of us---massive deficits, under funded or overly generous social programs depending on your view, complicated and unproductive tax code, growing regulation of everything, unstable and threatening parts of the world. These are problems and wounds, which we have inflicted on ourselves over many years by both feckless Republicans and Democrats. The country and its leaders have allowed all of this to happen.

It looks like Congress will remain divided. Republicans will maintain a grip in the House and will have squandered a change to flip the Senate due to their own fault for the most part. This will lead to a continuation the gridlock as both sides dig in, unmoved by a cocky re-elected Obama or a yet to be beat down Romney.

In any event, it could be a very interesting night. I intend to vote in the morning, work and then watch the results hunkered down with a finely prepared meal and a bottle of Rol-aids.