Election Predictions: One Year Away

The National election is a week or so shy of being a year away. We will cast votes for President, various Senators and all Members of the House or Representative in addition to State and local office. This will be a biggie. A number of vexing, nagging and important political, economic and security questions will be answered.

Will the country turn out President Obama and his liberal ways? Will the levers of government take a sharp turn to the right? Will Mr. Obama survive and, if so, how can and will he deal with what looks like a more conservative Congress.  Can anyone really govern anymore?

The country faces a difficult state of affairs. There is great underemployment, financial strain at many levels, a central government that has had it debt downgraded and plenty of political discourse and disagreement. There are angry people camping out across the country protesting not sure what, people who distrust the government and find its meddling offensive, and young men and women serving far from home in the cause of our national security.

Everyone knows the problems. We have a record of the President who has disappointed, been a disaster to others but is the savior to some. The Republican Party is vetting its candidates and will chose an opponent for what surely will be a battle royale of elections. So, lets handicap the races with a year to go.

President of the United States

 Mr. Obama has seen his fortunate slide in past year. He has be pilloried, seen his polls fall and his legislative programs rejected. Most people by a big margin disapprove of his handling of the economy. He seems to have lost most of whatever charm he may have had.

However, it is not easy to defeat an incumbent. Mr. Obama will be well funded, has incredible support from blacks and unions, public employees, moneyed elites, the press and good support among Hispanics and younger voters.  The faithful in his party are dedicated. He is capable of hard campaigning and has shown a nasty side of taking no prisoners, and willing to do and say whatever, and I mean whatever, it takes to be re-elected. He is in full campaign mode.

His election in 2008 was the results of a perfect storm of political events. The mal economy meltdown, tired and sometimes-inept opponent, weary Bush syndrome, good campaign, moderate stances, war fatigue that all came together to give him a solid victory. Now, he has to face his achievements or lack thereof. The blame Bush clarion call has run its course.

The Republicans, on the other hand, have risen for the depths of the political abyss to not only challenge the Democrats but to almost dictate the political agenda. Their criticism of Mr. Obama and the liberals knows almost no boundary. The political comity is nonexistent

So whom do the Republicans choose? At this point, it appears it will be Mitt Romney. He is capable while the rest look like not ready for prime time. Sure, Mr. Romney has his flaws and detractors. However, a long campaign and settling on a nominee brings strength and credibility. As the saying goes, “he may be an idiot, but he is my idiot”.

However, in my opinion, the election is not about the Republican nominee. It is about the President. The Republicans are united on one single objective and they are enthusiastic about it- Defeat Obama. Nothing else matters.

 I understand the electoral map but I have a hard time seeing how Mr. Obama gets to 270 electoral votes again. Republicans have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot and some of their harden stances look to some voters as extreme.  It is a long time to go but by spring, we will have a better idea.

I rate this match a toss up.

United States Senate

The Democrats have 53 and the Republicans 47 members. That is the good news for the Democrats, the bad news they are defending far more seats (23) than the Republicans (10). A few of the seats are safe for sure but they’re a lot of seats in question. Leaning to the Democrats is probably Connecticut, keeping the seat for the D’s and leaning to the Republican side are Arizona, Maine and Nebraska (D seat), taking a seat away from the D’s. The rest are tossups: New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, Massachusetts (R seat) Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada (R seat), Virginia, and Wisconsin.

 So, 8 Democrats and 2 Republican are tossups by my count.  Let’s say they are split. The number of 5 plus the Nebraska seat is more than enough for control to switch. Harry Reid moves down the hall and Mitch McConnell becomes the powerful Majority Leader and Reid the obstructionist.

 Oh by the way, here is a quote from Senator Reid yesterday, which shows just how out of touch he is with the solutions for the economy. "It's very clear that private sector jobs have been doing just fine, it's the public sector jobs where we've lost huge numbers….” Wow, Senator tell that to the 14 million who want private sector jobs.

 Republicans take over Senate. 52 to 48.

 House of Representatives

Republicans have a 242 to 193 majority over Democrats in the House.  Many States have not finished redistricting so it is more difficult to make an analysis. However, it looks like redistricting will be a draw. Republicans have used the process to shore up marginal districts and Democrats have nudged some Republicans out.

Polls seem to show, and the results verify, that neither side seems to being doing all that well. The generic ballot is about a draw. In 2010, the generic ballot was big time in favor of the R’s and is a fairly reliable measure.

Democrats have been more or less irrelevant in the past year, as they have lost legislative power. Republicans have been all over the map. Some of the freshmen will not survive; to that there is no doubt. Frankly, some of them should not survive but I do not think the earth will shift much.

Republicans continue control the House and lose less than 10 net seats if Obama wins and gain 5 seats if he loses. 

 Of course, this is all best guesses at this point. There is much more to come. 

 

Comments

[freelance jobs]

the election is here again.. I hope this time the politicians are much responsible.