Republican New Hampshire Kickoff Debate: Handicapping the Race

Seven Republicans seeking the nomination of their party to face off against the incumbent President 16 months from now held a joint appearance last night in New Hampshire. It was a friendly affair, moved along quite nicely by the moderators from CNN for the most part with only a twinge of their bias showing. With the country still exhausted politically and still digesting the last election, it seems early to me to start all of this. Maybe all the dialogue helps focus on the options and problems before the country, but I suspect, this was really an event for political junkies.

The appearance left an impression of the various participants. They all agreed the Obama Administration has been disappointing at best and a total failure at worst. Each one tried to stay on their message and highlight their strengths, their vision. No real fireworks ensued against each other. No real drama. If you could not watch because Leave It to Beaver was on another channel, do not worry, as this nominating process will go on for some time. Beside, an overwhelming super majority of Republicans who will pick their nominee have already decided they will vote even for Felix the Cat over the current White House occupant.

For the most part, the participants looked prepared. One of the attributes a politician must have is be able to recognize the subject of a question, spout off a 3 to 4 sentence answer and be able to divert the answer to avoid the question or make another point of criticism. A well-prepared politician will have multiple briefing books of positions, questions and answers, I know, I used to write them.

Let’s look at an example:

Moderator: “This question is for Governor Romney sent in by Cindy Wiggins of Mount Frost Heave. What did you have for breakfast?”

Governor Romney:  "Thank your for asking, Cindy. Very kind of you to care. Well, I had a bowl of Cream of Wheat and a piece of dry toast which made me think about the incredible inane policies of this Administration towards the family farmer. The prices are up at the grocery store and it is causing hardship for hard working American and so on and on --------“

After each of these cattle call events, political professionals, writers, bloggers, talking heads and the like will analyze and dissect the performance of each person. How did they look, present themselves, and make a gaffe? I will leave the grading of this event to others. However, I want to look at these individuals on their prospective chance to secure the nomination. Of course, there may be others that will enter the race later. Rick Perry, Sarah Pallin, John Huntsman, Chris Christie or Felix the Cat.  Other early naysayers, may reconsider—Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, John Thune. Who knows?  Bring them on.

So, there you have it, of these seven, the magnificent seven, who can win the nomination? 

Mitt Romney (former Governor of Massachusetts) is deemed the front-runner in most polls. He is polished, articulate, politically seasoned and smart. Romney will have sufficient financial resources to go the distance. He also carries considerable baggage, accused of being a flip flopper, too moderate for Republicans and having inconsistent positions on important issues. Chances: 60% 

Michele Bachmann (Congresswomen from Minnesota) is a fiery, sharp, energetic candidate steeped in conservative politics. She looked poised last night and gave some strong answers plus has an interesting personal story. Bachman will be strong in early conservative states and will have “Tea Party” support. Chances: 20%

Tim Pawlenty (former Governor of Minnesota) was strong out of the gate in his announcement several weeks ago, making headlines of a sort in presenting a comprehensive set of economic principals. He also has a good story but seems a bit meek on the stage. He is also a social conservative which may help him in places like Iowa. Chances: 30%  

Rick Santorum (former Senator from Pennsylvania) is socially conservative and a poised speaker. He is articulate and appears to be a principled man. However, he lost his last statewide election in 2006 and I am frankly not sure why he is running. Chances: 15%

Newt Gingrich (former Speaker of the House) is known for his lecturing style and flow of ideas, some of them thought out and some of them nutty. No one doubts his ability to try to think out solutions to a problem. However, his campaign staff recently resigned en mass and he never seems to really connect with people. His time has come and gone. Chances: 5%

Herman Cain (former business executive) is the refreshing voice of the non-politician in the race. He has not learned the nuances of political jargon or of not saying what you mean. Unfortunately for him, he probably knows more about pizza toppings than he does about the state of affairs. However, he bring a quality of honestly and frankness that the others do not have.  Chances: Zero

Ron Paul (Congressman from Texas) looks like that cantankerous uncle who shows up for Thanksgiving and then complains the stuffing has pine nuts in it.  While I confess I find some of his libertarian ideas resonating, I do not think abolishing the Federal Reserve or going back to the gold standard can cure all the ills of the world. On military issues and reduced government, he appeals to very narrow segment of libertarians, ultraconservatives and has become kind of a folk cult figure. Chances: Zero

It will be a good show but as yet not better than re-runs of the Beav.